Is it really that glorious time again? The glitz, the glamor, the fresh new reminder that I’m both unemployed AND have nowhere to be on a Sunday night? Why, it’s Oscar season, people! Otherwise known as the *clears throat* The 86th Academy Awards Show on CBS (Brought to you by Pepsi), to you sticklers for legalese.
As far as films years go, this makes up a decidedly different outing from the last time I did this in 2013. For starters, this time I’ve actually SEEN most of the movies that were nominated! (Editor’s note: Be sure to delete that last comment. Because something, something journalistic integrity). All kidding aside though, there were highs, there were lows and there were films that I didn’t care to see because, frankly they seemed boring, and I require my quota of at least one explosion (or dance sequence, or wedding proposal) per film. (Editors Note: I probably shouldn’t write while buzzed, should I?).
For the most part, 2013 tooted out some dynamite performances. But for all the nominees there can be only one and in honor of the Academy Awards’ long rich history of playing God, “artistic integrity be damned,” I have hand picked my way for winners through the only categories that anyone will probably remember. Feel free to print this list out and play Mahad Guesses The Oscars: The Game! ™ at home with your friends!
The rules are simple. Every time I nail it, take a shot. Every time I blow it, take a shot. Every time Ellen Degeneres succeeds at being just completely freaking loveable, take a shot. Why yes, part of the charm of Mahad Guesses The Oscars: The Game ™ IS the excessive drinking. But don’t you give me that look. It’s gonna be a long night and if you’re printing this out, odds are you don’t have anywhere to be either.
Best Picture!
Nominees:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyer’s Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf Of Wall Street
Who Should Win:
I can’t remember a year where the coveted Best Picture award was more loaded. And, unlike previous years, a strong argument can actually be made for all of these films, with the lone exception being the autobiographical wank fest to Jordan Belfort that is The Wolf Of Wall Street (Sorry Leonardo Dicaprio. One day your prince will come when he’s less of a pardoned real life criminal who makes a killing doing fucking motivational seminars about how he made his fortune by ripping innocent people off. Also, a nearly 3-hour running time solely for more topless dancers? Really?)
But with all that being said, count on 12 Years A Slave to more or less clean up tonight in this category. Fact is, no film stood out more and stayed fresh in your mind more than perhaps the most honest, more than 2-hour long portrayal of the institution of slavery. 12 Years A Slave went in brutal and it went in honestly backed by some of the most dynamic performances of the year. Close runner-ups expected to be American Hustle (which is how you do a complex “greed is good” story without being an unlikeable asshole, Leo!) and Captain Phillips.
Who’ll Probably Win:
Odds are plenty good for 12 Years A Slave to all but lock this category down. In fact, with strong contenders for also Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress thanks to the performances of Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender, and Lupita Nyong’o, odds are plenty good that 12 Years A Slave ends up sweeping the night. And deservedly so. Say what you will about all the films up for nomination this year for Best Picture, but what 12 Years A Slave does goes above and beyond in its unflinching, unforgiving presentation to make sure you don’t just forget about it after walking out of the theater.
Best Actor!
Nominees:
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf Of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyer’s Club)
Who Should Win:
If my gushing over 12 Years A Slave can be put aside for just a moment on the simple basis of whose performance was a make or break to a movie, Christian Bale takes it for American Hustle. You want to talk about burying yourself in your work? He’s nigh unrecognizable in the film, leaving the audience with nothing but his character to take in, one which he subtly works along the fine line between charismatic and slimey. And as much as I love the bizarre trend of McConaughey turning out A+ performances in challenging roles, after for the longest time being simply known as “that shirtless idiot who’s in everything,” his stint in Dallas Buyer’s Club was essentially just him playing an exaggerated version of the same Texas goofball he’s always been, played up for the sake of that oh-so-illustrious “Oscar because obscure biopic” nomination. As for Leonardo Dicaprio, he does a fine enough job of playing an asshole in The Wolf Of Wall Street, but at the end of the day, he is playing a real-life, living, profiting asshole, so no.
Who’ll Probably Win:
Let’s just say Mr. Ejiofor and company may end up spending a lot of time out of their seats.
Best Actress!
Nominees:
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Who Should Win:
As much as my gut’s pulling hard for Amy Adam’s role as the captivating, multi-layered con artist in American Hustle, (if Christian Bale was the peanut butter, she’d be the required jelly and Bradley Cooper would be the annoying crust trying so hard to stay relevant with every bite), I’d be lying to myself if I said she was deserving of Lead Actress gravitas. Not when compared to Cate Blanchett’s Jasmine in the film Blue Jasmine. To say she carries the movie would be an understatement. If there is no Jasmine, there is quite simply no story. Blue Jasmine is the story of an a doe-eyed idealist who’s simply oblivious to the negative qualities she posses, the lives she wrecks and the self-destruction she craves. It’s a powerhouse performance and Blanchette leaves it all out on the field.
Who’ll Probably Win?
The award is all but Blanchette’s to lose and seeing as Blue Jasmine has no other nominations for it, compared to American Hustle’s four nominations, the case is stronger for the Oscar committee to want to make sure Blue Jasmine gets a win for something. Sandra Bullock is kidding herself if she thinks the star of Gravity was anyone but “the cold, unfeeling vacuum of space,” and will just have to try and settle for sacks full of money instead (a reported massive payday that experts are tentatively describing as “buttloads”). If not Blanchet, then expect an Amy Adams steal. With all due respect to Judi Dench, your role was more or less to play safe grandma. And with all due respect to Meryl Streep, did anyone even see your movie?
Best Supporting Actor!
Nominees:
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf Of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyer’s Club)
Who Should Win?
Newcomer Barkhad Abdi hands freaking down. Sure, I may be prone to being a bit biased wanting a fellow Somali-American to win and it certainly can be argued that my criteria for picking him solely for his captivating performance as the leader of a band of Somali pirates rings of hypocrisy when I just bad-mouthed Matthew McConaughey for more or less just playing up his own cultural roots for his roles. But young Abdi hasn’t done it about a dozen times yet, Matthew. I’ve got a good Somali radar. I’ll tell you what, when HE starts playing up a bunch of cultural stereotypes, lazily re-worked into a character, I’ll let you know. All that aside, it should be noted that if English isn’t even your first language and yet you somehow manage to stand your own against Tom Hank’s acting chops, you’ve got talent in the tank.
Who’ll Probably Win?
There’s a huge chance that Bradley Cooper gets it simply because for some reason his brand of smart-ass is still deemed lovable. The fact that he’s already been to the big dance before with Silver Linings Playbook and came up empty may be the all the incentive the Oscar crowd needs to give it to him. Fassbender’s another potential winner and, honestly, would have it easy if it weren’t for the fact 12 Years A Slave was already nominated in multiple categories.
Best Supporting Actress!
Nominees:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years A Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Who Should Win:
It’s a tricky thing to be associated with American Hustle. On one hand, of all the films collecting Oscar Nominations like it’s going out of style, it may be the best film out of the lot that’s not called 12 Years A Slave. On the other hand, Jennifer Lawrence’s minor but stand out role as Bale’s estranged wife might easily have stood out head and shoulder above all other Supporting Actress nominations, if this just didn’t happen to be a year with 12 Years A Slave. Newcomer Lupita Nyong’o is part two of the Why-12-Years-A-Slave-works-so-well formula and I’ll be shocked if the award doesn’t already have her name engraved.
Who’ll Probably Win:
Between Jennifer Lawrence just having won Best Actress last year with Silver Linings Playbook, Julia Roberts owning enough Oscars to choke a hippo, June Squib being pleasant but ultimately forgettable, and Sally Hawkins being more or less just a sounding board for Cate Blanchett’s antics, you’ll find a large, flashing neon sign that says PROPERTY OF LUPITA NYONG’O.
Best Animated Feature!
Nominees:
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Who Should Win:
Okay, okay, bare with me and for just a moment forget about how amazing Frozen was. There is an elephant in the room here that’s been severely overlooked as far as Oscar press buzz is concerned. The Croods was far more enjoyable than it ought to have been, with some surprising heart, but that’s not the one I’m talking about. Despicable Me 2 was far better for an unnecessary sequel then it ought to have been, but that’s not the one I’m talking about, either. No theaters near me even had Ernest & Celestine screening and it’s nomination is literally the first time I’m hearing of it, so it’s clearly not my pick for what should win. How about, instead, we talk about the final film ever from the man who brought us the endearing worlds of Kiki’s Delivery Service, Princess Mononoke, Spirited Away, and Howl’s Moving Castle, to name a few? The man who’s largely credited for bringing the world of Japanese animation to the mainstream in the U.S.? This year, after a long illustrious career in animation, Japanese director Hayo Miyazaki announced plans to finally retire, with The Wind Rises crafted as his magnum opus. And it’s not a bad note to go out on.
Who’ll Probably Win:
Oh, freaking Frozen hands down. Did you not see that full blown reimagining of that old Disney magic, complete with those songs that odds are, are STILL stuck in your head? “Let it goooo! Let it gooo! Can’t hold it back anymooooooore!” *cough* Yeah, so Frozen probably.
