Recently released economic indicators point to a productive Atlanta economy and positive signs for Georgia’s economy as a whole, according to Dr. Laura Wheeler, a Senior Research Associate at Georgia State’s Center for State and Local Finance/Fiscal Research Center (CSLF).
| Atlanta Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted) October 2016: 5.1 percent / November 2016: 5.1 percent Georgia Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted) October 2016: 5.2 percent / November 2016: 5.3 percent |
These economic indicators show that in November 2016 less people were unemployed, more people actively looked for jobs, and more money was spent in Georgia, according to reports released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), the Georgia Department of Labor and the Georgia Department of Revenue.
The Georgia Department of Labor recently reported that seasonally adjusted unemployment numbers for the state went up from 5.2 percent in October 2016 to 5.3 percent in November 2016.
Wheeler pointed out that the increase in Georgia’s unemployment may in fact be a positive sign for Georgia’s economy, if it is not a long-term trend.
“An increase in the unemployment rate also may reflect increased confidence in the labor market,” Wheeler said. “As people are more confident about their ability to find employment, there may be more shopping around for employment and workers may be willing to risk a short period of unemployment to find other employment options.”
Wheeler said that people who were not previously accounted for in the labor market, such as discouraged workers, may be “drawn into the market if they believe their options for seeking employment have improved.”
Atlanta unemployment had a better November than unemployment figures for the state of Georgia, as the department also recently reported that non-seasonally adjusted unemployment in the Atlanta area dropped from 5 percent in October 2016 to 4.8 percent in November 2016, while the BLS recently released seasonally adjusted versions of the Atlanta area’s unemployment rates remaining the same at 5.1 percent from October 2016 to November 2016.
“It is typically the case that in the last quarter of the year we see a rise [in] temporary employment which usually results in a decline in the unemployment rate,” Wheeler said. “Seasonally adjusted numbers account for this expected and temporary change which is why the seasonally adjusted figures [for the Atlanta area] did not change. There can be a lot of variation month to month in the seasonally unadjusted figures.”
The notion that the drop in non-seasonally adjusted unemployment is due to seasonal hiring is reaffirmed by the BLS’s report that jobs in the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector (which encompasses retail jobs) grew by over 11,500 from October 2016 to November 2016, the largest job growth by sector in that time.
Wheeler said that it is not too surprising to see Atlanta’s seasonally adjusted unemployment remain the same while Georgia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment went up, attributing the discrepancy to “higher levels of economic activity” in urban areas like Atlanta versus smaller areas of the state.
However, CSLF Senior Research Associate Peter Bluestone expressed caution for reaching major conclusions from these changes.
“It’s hard to draw too much out of a monthly number in unemployment, especially when you’re looking at changes of the decimal point,” Bluestone said. “I would be cautious in trying to interpret too much from that.”
The Georgia Department of Revenue also recently reported that Gross Sales Tax collections for November 2016 increased by 2.2 percent from the collections in November 2015, meaning people are spending more money in Georgia.
“The Georgia economy is performing well,” Wheeler said. “November 2016 net sales and use tax collections exceeded November 2015 net sales and use tax collections by 5.9 percent. Individual income tax recipients are up 3.9 percent over this same period last year.”
Bluestone once again expressed hesitation in drawing conclusions from the increase in sales tax collections.
“It’s better for [sales tax collections] to be going up, which means the state economy is doing fairly well, versus going down,” Bluestone said. “But again, it’s hard to put too much on just one number and comparing to last month’s number, or even last year’s number.”
